Covid update on 1 Jan 2022: the long tail

Let’s check the death rate during the last four weeks.

The graph shows the daily mortality per million inhabitants on the y-axis and the cumulative mortality per million inhabitants on the x-axis since the start of the epidemic. The name of the country in ISO-3A code is next to the most recent data. It should be noted that all-cause mortality is in the magnitude of 20 to 30 per million per day.

Poland and Croatia remain at very high rates (above 10 deaths per million inhabitants per day), with Croatia decreasing.

Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Greece  and Germany are still high (above 3 and below 10) with all countries improving. Georgia and Ukraine should also be on the chart be it seems there is a flaw in their reporting for the past weeks.

In all other European countries, mortality is less than 3 per million inhabitants.

This statistic is also true on a worldwide basis.

On a worldwide basis, there are only 12 countries all located in Europe reporting more than 3 deaths per million inhabitants per day.


If you believe the reporting made by the national health care systems and aggregated by ECDC, Covid mortality has not yet disappeared but Covid motality has very substantally reduced.

Covid 19 is almos over.